The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
Deteriorating ties between India and Canada could have a bearing on flows into the domestic capital markets. At present, Canada is the seventh largest country for foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows into India. According to the National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL), the assets under custody (AUC) of FPIs domiciled in Canada stood at nearly Rs 1.8 trillion ($21 billion) at the end of August. Almost 85 per cent of these investments are in listed equity, while the remaining in debt and hybrid instruments.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has for the first time proposed to regulate online platforms offering fractional ownership in real estate, a model already popular in countries like the United States and UAE. In a consultation paper floated recently, the capital markets regulator stated that such fractional ownership of real estate assets was proposed to be brought as MSM (micro, small, medium) REITs under Sebi (Real Estate Investment Trusts) Regulations. This model allows investors to own a fraction or a small share in a real estate asset like buildings and office spaces, which could include warehouses, shopping centres, conference centres.
Trading in the domestic equity market this week will be influenced by quarterly results from TCS and Infosys, besides inflation and industrial production data as well as global trends, analysts said. Movement of the rupee, which has slumped to record lows against the US dollar, will also be tracked by investors, they added. "This week, participants will be eyeing important macroeconomic data viz IIP, CPI and WPI... Besides, the week also marks the beginning of the earnings season with IT majors like TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech and Wipro announcing their numbers along with two other heavyweights Bajaj Auto and HDFC Bank," said Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd. Performance of the US markets, FIIs' trend, and movement in currency and crude will also remain on their radar, Mishra added.
Jet fuel prices on Friday were hiked by 2 per cent - the seventh straight increase this year - to an all-time high, reflecting a surge in global energy prices. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) - the fuel that helps aeroplanes fly - was hiked by Rs 2,258.54 per kilolitre, or 2 per cent, to Rs 1,12,924.83 per kl in the national capital, according to a price notification by state-owned fuel retailers. There was, however, no change in the price of petrol and diesel on Friday.
The move comes barely a week after fellow crypto unicorn CoinDCX laid off 12 per cent of its workforce - an estimated 80 employees - amid challenging macroeconomic conditions and regulatory uncertainty in the sector. CoinSwitch has 519 employees, according to its LinkedIn profile. This means around 8 per cent of its workforce were shown the door.
The banking system's liquidity slipped into deficit for the first time in the current financial year (2023-24) due to the imposition of the Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio (I-CRR) for banks and outflows from goods and services tax (GST) payments, according to dealers. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows it injected Rs 23,644 crore on August 21. The last time liquidity was in deficit was on March 27, when the RBI injected Rs 45,575 crore.
Public-sector banks (PSBs) in Q3FY23 wrote off bad loans worth Rs 29,000 crore, up from Rs 23,000 crore in the same quarter a year ago, as part of a clean-up exercise. According to estimates by rating agency CARE Ratings, the write-offs by PSBs in April-December 2022, at Rs 81,000 crore, were lower than the Rs 90,000 crore in April-December 2021. Sanjay Agarwal, senior director, CARE Ratings, said a lot of it was driven by regulations, and assets that had 100 per cent provision coverage were written off.
Mounting repayment pressure for some borrowers, particularly micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, amid India's interest rate hikes will test banks' loan underwriting quality, Fitch Ratings said on Thursday. However, asset-quality risks from higher rates should generally be moderate for most banks, it said in a statement. Higher rates will also affect securities valuations and could make it harder for banks to raise fresh capital, particularly at state banks, although wider net interest margins (NIM) will have offsetting positive credit effects, it added.
Black money to the tune of "Rs 1.25 lakh crore" has been confiscated by the Modi government, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said on Monday and asserted transparency is a key aspect of the present dispensation's good governance model. The minister for railways said similarly, to ensure transparency, benami properties worth Rs 4,300 crore were attached and registration of 1.75 lakh companies cancelled. Talking to reporters at the Rail Bhawan, Vaishnaw said in his long public service, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has "perfected a model of good governance that started in Gujarat".
Indian start-ups are disrupting the world and women-based entrepreneurship is one of the vehicles for realising a more equal society, Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said on Monday. Addressing an event organised by FICCI Ladies Organisation (FLO), Kant further said India at present has more than 61,000 start-ups and 81 unicorns. "Indian start-ups are disrupting the world especially in new emerging areas of health, nutrition and agriculture," he said.
Taiwan in 1951 came up with an ingenious plan to improve tax compliance: citizens taking receipts for purchases could use them as lottery tickets. Customers were incentivized, and businesses found it hard to evade taxes. The plan's success prompted other countries, Slovakia and Greece among them, to launch similar initiatives. India doesn't seem to find the need yet for such schemes amid surging goods and services tax (GST) collections.
Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
The 'Khela Hobe' slogan will reverberate across India in the coming days, said Trinamool Congress MLA Madan Mitra on Saturday.
'...which is possible through flexicap and multicap funds.' 'The latter has a better balance between large, mid and smallcap stocks.'
'What will matter in 2024 from the market standpoint is the direction of interest rates globally, as well as in India.' 'The results of the general elections will also be keenly watched.'
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The life insurance industry reported a 25.28 per cent decline in new business premium income in November 2023 to Rs 26,494.83 crore from Rs 34,588.8 crore recorded a year ago. The fall in group premium and change in taxation norms for policies with a higher ticket size dragged the premiums of the state-run Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and private insurers, respectively. According to the data released by the Life Insurance Council, the premium of private insurers slipped 9.33 per cent Y-o-Y to Rs 10,360.29 crore from Rs 11,426.73 crore as a result of a change in product mix due to the measures taken to counter the impact of tax imposed on the premiums of Rs 5 lakh.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
RBI's projection of retail inflation at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal is neither too high to deter private consumption, nor so low as to weaken inducement to invest, the Economic Survey said on Tuesday. However, entrenched inflation may prolong the tightening cycle and therefore, borrowing costs may stay 'higher for longer', it said. The Economic Survey 2022-23 was tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
The Union government is projected to share about 32 per cent of central taxes with states during the financial year 2024-25 against the 15th Finance Commission's recommendation of 41 per cent. The Revised Estimates (RE) for FY24, too, show a similar share of states in the central taxes at 32 per cent. In absolute terms, however, there has been an increase in the amount devolved to states compared to the Budget Estimates (BE) for FY24 at Rs 11 trillion.
Credit card spending has hit a record high of Rs 1.4 lakh crore in May, the latest data from Reserver Bank of India showed. The total spending or outstanding dues on credit cards, which remained rang-bound throughout the year in the previous fiscal, have been rising by 5 per cent month on month this year. Similarly, the number of cards in use has also jumped by more than 5 million since January and crossed 87.4 million in the reporting month, making this also an all-time high in May, according to the RBI data.
With the fate of the Development Enterprise and Services Hub (DESH) Bill in limbo, the commerce department is working towards tweaking some rules under the existing special economic zone (SEZ) law to allow use of unutilised spaces in IT/ITES for non-SEZ purposes. The move, when implemented, will free-up the land area that is not in demand through partial de-notification of certain floors or buildings, thereby allowing easier exit. "The department of commerce is discussing the matter with the revenue department before making changes in the Special Economic Zone Act, 2005," a person aware of the matter
With the arrest of one person from Noida, the cyber cell of Uttar Pradesh police on Wednesday claimed to have busted an online fraud nexus worth Rs 3,000 crore with links in China.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has proposed that at least 10 per cent of corporate bond market trades by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) should be done on the request for quote (RFQ) platform. At present, most trades in the corporate bond market are over-the-counter (OTC), creating a lot of opacity. The markets regulator has been nudging debt market participants such as mutual funds (MFs), alternative investment funds (AIFs) and brokers to use the RFQ platform to boost secondary market liquidity and transparency.
The growth in India's spending is far higher than the global average year-on-year increase of 12% for this category of apps in 2022.
With an eye on improving quality assurance in the wake of increased global scrutiny on Indian pharma products, the Centre on Tuesday said that Schedule M of the Drugs and Cosmetics Act, 1940 will be made compulsory for small and medium scale manufacturers in a phased manner. Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya has asked micro-small and medium enterprises in pharma manufacturing to move towards good manufacturing practices (GMP) through self regulation. "This will help in quality assurance and also reduce compliance burden," Mandaviya.
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The National Financial Reporting Authority (NFRA) has issued guidelines to inspect select audit firms to identify areas and opportunities for improvement in the audit firm's system of quality control, a statement said. "Inspections will consist firm-wide review of audit quality and individual file reviews on test-check basis to evaluate the level of compliance with applicable auditing standards and quality control policy and processes," NFRA said. The selection of the audit firm or the auditor for such inspection by NFRA would be based on assessment of risks in the audit environment.
Private life insurers experienced reasonable growth in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), and the October data is also encouraging. The individual weighted received premium (WRP) for private players grew by 19.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in October. However, Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India had slower growth, pulling the industry growth rate down to 13 per cent Y-o-Y.
Sitharaman also listed out various welfare schemes like affordable housing, direct benefit transfer and Ayushman Bharat.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) latest order on unsecured loans is set to hit the banking sector's growth in the near-term, cautioned analysts, as they see banks slowing down on aggressive retail lending. Besides, cost of funds for non-banking finance companies (NBFC) is expected to inch up as banks will pass on higher capital charge to NBFCs. "We believe the fallout of the RBI action will be mainly on growth, given the rising dependence on unsecured retail loans and lending to NBFCs for growth.
When billionaire Warren Buffet started his first fund in 1956 with eleven investors, he invested a token amount of $100 of his own money as "skin in the game". Buffet denies it but he is credited with coming up with the term describing those running a fund risk some of their own money in it. The mutual fund (MF) industry has more than Rs 81,200 crore riding on its schemes, shows a Business Standard analysis of data on sponsor and associate contributions from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi).
Reflecting strong momentum in business, commercial banks, including one public sector lender, reported a year-on-year (YoY) growth in advances. This was higher than or around the banking sector trend in the first quarter ended June 2023. Bank of Maharashtra said its loans expanded by 25 per cent YoY to Rs 1.75 trillion. This pace was much higher than the banking system's 15.4 per cent growth till June 16, 2023, according to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data.
Seven of the top-10 valued firms suffered a combined erosion of Rs 1,54,477.38 crore in market valuation last week, with IT majors Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys emerging as the biggest laggards. Last week, the BSE benchmark index tanked 812.28 points or 1.36 per cent. Reliance Industries Limited, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India were the only gainers in the top-10 pack.
Even as banks and finance companies are reporting record-high earnings, their weighting in the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index has seen a downward trajectory. Investors expect a stronger performance from other sectors in the new year. Currently, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies collectively hold a weighting of 34.5 per cent, down from 36.7 per cent at the end of December 2022 and a record high of 40.6 per cent at the end of December 2019. This represents the sector's lowest weighting in the index since December 2021 when it stood at 33.7 per cent.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies has rejigged his equity portfolios. In his Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, he has added Axis Bank (5 per cent weightage) and increased holding in Larsen & Toubro (L&T) by one percentage point. This, Wood said, will be paid for by removing the investment in ICICI Lombard General Insurance and reducing the investments in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL) by one percentage point each.
Stock markets would be largely driven by macroeconomic data, auto sales numbers, FII inflows and global trends this week, analysts said. The US debt ceiling negotiations and institutional flows will also be watched by investors. "This week, market participants will closely monitor institutional flows, as there is a historical observation that when both FIIs and DIIs become net buyers simultaneously, there is a likelihood of some profit-booking in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 4 per cent, followed by HCL Tech, Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra, L&T and Kotak Bank.
Equity markets rallied after softer-than-expected inflation data in the US and UK rekindled hopes of the end of the rate-hiking cycle by major central banks. The soft inflation reading drove down bond yields and the US dollar, whetting the appetite for risky assets. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4.5 per cent after topping 5 per cent less than a month ago.
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